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Is COVID Stable, Increasing, or Decreasing in your State?

Nationally, wave 3 crested on November 25th. Since then, modeled active cases have declined by about 78,000, or 6.4%. However, testing reports did decline over the Thanksgiving weekend, so I suspect we have one more day of catchup, so these numbers could see an increase tomorrow, before getting back on track by Friday. On top of this, we’ll know next week if we have a “wavelet” from the Thanksgiving holiday. We have not seen surges from other holiday weekends (July 4, Labor Day), so I don’t expect much change.

Of the states that I track, 5 states are still increasing (NY, AZ, TN, MA, and AL), 10 states are stable (NJ, CA, NC, FL, SC, TX, OH, GA, MI, and PA), and 7 states are in decline (CO, IL, WI, IN, SD, WA, and VA).

Here is the picture of modeled known active cases nationally. You can see the peak on November 25. I model 1.13 million known active cases. I expect this to increase modestly tomorrow as the reporting catches up.

Here is the national daily death count. Increasing as expected with wave 3. The brown line is my projection of daily deaths, based on 2.75 deaths per 1,000 known active cases and a 21 day lag. I’m expecting daily deaths to crest around December 16th at about 3,300 daily deaths. The IHME model projects a daily death peak on January 8th, at 2,562 daily deaths (we were above that today), but they haven’t updated their projection since November 19. I’m expecting an earlier, but higher peak.

Here are the daily deaths per 1,000 active cases with the 21 day lag. We’re hoping to see this decline, but so far it’s been stable for months. I started this graph just after wave 2, so we can look at it a little more closely.

We continue to see a steady march upward in daily test reports, with a flattening over the holiday. I expect this will pop back up tomorrow. We saw record testing just before the holiday, I suspect from a rash of asymptomatic testing prior to Thanksgiving travel. I think we’ll see a bump in testing post-holiday travel as well.

Individual States

Here is Arizona, continuing to increase rapidly. AZ surpassed its wave 2 peak, and is now at 0.41% of the population. I don’t expect this state to get above about 34,000 active cases.

SC has been flat for a week, and still below its wave 2 peak.

Here is Florida – flat for 12 days now.

Same with California – a five day halt in rapid growth. The peak is low, so I’m afraid there is more growth to come here.

Georgia has been flat for nearly 2 weeks now.

Texas arrested its growth about 6 days ago. The peak on November 26th was at 0.28% of the population. This number has proven a little low for a peak, so I’m expecting a bit more growth here.

VA has seen a 3 day decline, and NC has been flat for 10 days.

Here is the daily death report for NC, with no real movement in trend for nearly 4 months. NC did report a record death day today, however.

A big drop in Washington over the past 3 days. Still less than 0.20% of the population, so I don’t think this decline will hold, but I hope it does.

Here are NY and NJ – NY continues rapid growth, while we see a welcome stability in NJ.

Here is Massachusetts. Roughly flat for two weeks now. Let’s hope this is the top.

…And here is Michigan, down from the peak and now flat. The high water mark was just a hair over 0.5%, so I think this is the top.

PA has seen the rapid growth disappear. The peak on November 28th was at 0.37% of the population, so I think this is the peak.

Here is Colorado – Down significantly from their peak 11 days ago.

Here is Illinois, down significantly from 15 days ago.

Here is Wisconsin, down remarkably from the November 19th peak.

Here is Alabama, continuing to increase, now at 0.36% of the population. Based on this, I expect it to turn around shortly.

And Tennessee… Rapid decline over the second half of November, and now up again. This one should reach the top soon as well.

I believe Ohio has seen the top, based on the magnitude of the peak.

Here is Indiana, peaking 12 days ago.

And finally, here is South Dakota, down over 40% from the top.

 

So that’s it for today. I’ll report again on Monday or Tuesday.

–Shane Chalke, FSA

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