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Well, well, this is a surprise…

I wasn’t going to report again until Thursday, but this is blockbuster news: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

The WHO now says that it’s rare for an asymptomatic person to spread COVID. The WHO took a lot of heat for this, as it doesn’t fit the narrative we’ve heard for the past 3 months. However, if this is true, it has a lot of implications for public policy, and helps explain what I’ve been seeing.

First, and most important, it sheds doubt on the effectiveness of restricting the movement of healthy people. It would logically guide policy makers to concentrate on the sick, with quarantine and tracing. It also would explain why we don’t see any real correlation between movement restrictions and disease propagation. Sick people generally stay home, and we all know to avoid people exhibiting symptoms.

Second, this really undercuts the argument to wear masks if you’re not ill. You’ve heard the argument many times – the masks aren’t for sick people, they’re for asymptomatic spreaders. But if asymptomatic people don’t spread the virus, then masks are not needed.

I’ll report again on Thursday…

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 14 (last revision on June 8)
  • Total Test Results reported today: 432,880 (high)
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 1,661 (extremely low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 0.94% (extremely low)

Shane Chalke Interviews

https://www.fredericksburg.com/opinion/editorial-unlock-demographically-not-geographically/article_a62e6e70-dccd-51cf-b7b2-16d77a90fd9c.html

Website

Groom Ventures has agreed to host a website that will archive my daily reports, and supplement with other commentary. John Groom worked at one of my companies back in the day, and is an excellent writer. The website is: www.howmuchrisk.com For those of you that post my daily report on Facebook, let me suggest you link to this site, as the direct Facebook posts don’t seem to copy the graphs.

Daily Analysis

Here is the national picture of active cases – I’m modeling about 142,000 known active cases left. We’re 35% below the peak.

Here are the new reported cases nationally. The trend is still solid.

Here are the daily death reports. Daily deaths continue to fall steadily. We’ve been at or below 1,000 daily deaths for almost 2 weeks now. You might remember that all we heard 3 weeks ago was that we’d be up to 3,000 deaths a day by June. Thankfully, it’s not happening.

On to the states. Virginia is looking much better lately, now down 34% from the peak. I’m projecting that North Carolina reaches peak active cases about June 12.

No surprises with Washington – looks pretty flat for the past week, and there’s not much there.

Florida has risen since May 28th. I’ve read a lot of theories about what’s going on in Florida. We now know that’s it’s not growing in Miami as fast as in other areas of the state. IHME projects daily deaths in Florida flat for the foreseeable future, at about 30 per day. I model that Florida has nearly as much active COVID as NY and NJ combined. This is the part of my report to pay attention to in the next couple of weeks.

Both NY and NJ are in the end game, with a small percentage of COVID compared to their peaks. NY is now down 90% from their peak – I model only about 6,500 cases remaining. NJ is down 87% with about 3,300 active cases remaining.

California is now behaving as it should, cresting now. IHME has moved up their peak daily death projection to June 17th, so this makes sense, as peak deaths have been happening about 2 weeks after peak active cases.

Not much to say about Massachusetts – it’s down 85% down from the peak, and is in the end game. Massachusetts began opening up on May 18th, and is still looking good.

Georgia looks to be stationary over the past 5 weeks. I’m modeling a noticeable decline beginning about June 14.

…And here is Michigan. Still looking good. Significantly down from the peak on April 6.

Continued, almost straight line, decline in Pennsylvania. PA is now down 70% from the peak.

Texas is showing signs of leveling off. IHME now projects peak deaths after August 1st! I’m not sure what their drivers are, but when we see a definitive peak here, then peak deaths are usually a couple of weeks away. This one will be very interesting to watch over the next week or so.

And finally, here is Colorado. Colorado is one of the states that has had aberrations in their data. I’m modeling that they are 63% below peak, but I’ve shied away from any conclusions in this state due to the data irregularities.

So that’s it for today. The numbers are very small as a percentage of the population. Unless you’re in a high density area, your chances of contracting COVID are very small. However, even though the probability is very small, that doesn’t help if you’re the one catching it. Everyone please continue to be as cautious as feel necessary.

–Shane Chalke, FSA

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