COVID Archives

COVID analytical update for Monday, May 18

Lowest daily deaths since March

The big news today is the U.S. recorded the lowest daily death count since March, with 786 deaths reported today. All the states I’m tracking are moving more or less as expected, except for NC and FL. NC continues to increase, and Florida shows a significant 3-day increase. Some of the rise in reported cases can be attributed to the fact that testing volume is increasing faster than the disease, and NC has nearly tripled testing over the past 3 weeks. However, there are other states with this level of testing increase that are not showing an increase in modeled active cases.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or modeling in general.


  •  Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 16 (last revision on May 12)
  • Short term projection for active cases tomorrow: 159,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 335,305
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 3,596 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.3% (record low)

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