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COVID analytical update for Sunday, May 17

Record testing, and continued declines

I’ve been doing interviews for radio and newsprint lately. Here are a couple of links:

This one has been airing this weekend on a number of radio stations in Virginia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBor5ZqiRag

Here is one published today in a Virginia newspaper: https://www.fredericksburg.com/opinion/editorial-unlock-demographically-not-geographically/article_a62e6e70-dccd-51cf-b7b2-16d77a90fd9c.html

I’ll keep posting links here as I get them.

The big news today is a record spike in tests reported – over 420,000, coupled with a decline in new reported cases. The fact that most states have relaxed restrictions doesn’t seem to be affecting the pattern of decline. Also, as expected, the daily death report continues to decline. All good news.

I may not report every day, since the pattern remains relatively stable. However, if something changes, I’ll report right away.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 16 (last revision on May 12)
  • Short term projection for active cases tomorrow: 156,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 422,024 (a new record high)
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 3,449 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.4% (very low)

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