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COVID analytical update for Friday, May 15

Slow, steady progress

Same as yesterday. Slow, but steady progress at the national level, with steady increases in testing. In fact, we saw record tests reported again today – 378,410. By the end of the month, I expect we’ll see the U.S. about ½ way down the back side of the curve. No news on the IHME front. They still estimate that we saw peak daily deaths about a month ago on April 16.

As of today, there are only 5 states left with comprehensive restrictions on business and travel — https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-state-by-state-guide-to-coronavirus-lockdowns-11584749351?mod=theme_coronavirus-ribbon. With the vast majority of states in various stages of the opening process, it now becomes very difficult to discern any patterns in active cases by lockdown status. If we see any flare-ups in any of the states that I’m tracking this month, you’ll be the first to know.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 16 (last revision on May 12)
  • Short term projection for active cases tomorrow: 155,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 378,410
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 2,457 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.9% (very low)

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