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COVID analytical update for Thursday, May 14

Boring, but good boring…

I apologize if this is getting boring, but the report seems the same every day. Slow, but steady progress at the national level, with steady increases in testing. In fact, we saw record tests reported today – 367,453. By the end of the month, I expect we’ll see the U.S. about ½ way down the back side of the curve. No news on the IHME front. They still estimate that we saw peak daily deaths about a month ago on April 16.

The majority of states have now relaxed restrictions or never imposed restrictions (we’re now up to 26 states). I’m still not seeing any pattern differences between states that are opening up and states that remain with full restrictions – let’s hope that continues. If we see any flare-ups in any of the states that I’m tracking, you’ll be the first to know.

I’ve been doing a number of newspaper and radio interviews, and as I get the links, I’ll post them in this report.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 16 (last revision on May 12)
  • Short term projection for active cases tomorrow: 157,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 367,453
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 2,673 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.8% (very low)

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