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COVID analytical update for Wednesday, May 13

Significant progress while I was gone

I’ve been hiking for the past few days, so there is 3 days of data to catch up with. Significant declines on the national front, even while testing volume is quite a bit higher. The IHME model updated again yesterday, but is still showing that the U.S. experienced peak daily deaths back on April 16.

The majority of states have now relaxed restrictions or never imposed restrictions (we’re now up to 26 states). Of the various states that I’m tracking, only California is still obviously trending up. I’m still not seeing any pattern differences between states that are opening up and states that remain with full restrictions – let’s hope that continues.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 16 (last revision on May 12)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,400,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 336,392
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 1,983 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.6% (very low)

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