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COVID analytical update for Sunday, May 10

Declines in WA, FL, NY, MA, SC, MI, TX, VA

Hello all – Happy Mother’s Day. It’s also my wonderful wife Monique’s birthday, and Fred Astaire’s birthday.

We’re going hiking for a few days, so the next report will be Wednesday or Thursday. I expect current downward trends to continue – we haven’t seen anything anomalous for a while now. The IHME model updated today, and they painstakingly moved a lot of the death data to date of death, so now show peak deaths pack on April 16.

We now have about 19 states that have relaxed restrictions (I looked a few days ago, could be more now). I’m not seeing any pattern differences between states that are opening up and states that remain with full restrictions – that’s good news, but we’ll keep watching carefully.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  •  Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 16 (last revision on May 10)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,345,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 277,894
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 3,095 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.67% (a new low)

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