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COVID analytical update for Saturday, May 9

Declines in WA, NY, NC, MA, GA, MI, PA, TX

Very high reported test results today once again, over 300,000, with the positive rate again at only 8%. This is good – as testing has grown, the number of cases found has declined. Most all the states I’m tracking show declines today.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): May 1 (last revision on May 4)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,325,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 309,842
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 3,054 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 2.0% (very low)

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