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COVID analytical update for Friday, May 8

Declines in NY, FL, MA, GA, MI, TX, VA

Very high reported test results today once again, nearly 300,000, with the positive rate again about 8%. This is good – as testing has grown, the number of cases found has not.

I became aware of a few new randomized studies today, and have been working on updating my mortality estimates. I’ll report on this soon – no big changes, though. I still roughly estimate the mortality rate about 0.09% for those under age 65, and about 2.5% for those 65 and over. Here is an article outlining some of the studies: https://www.biospace.com/article/multiple-studies-suggest-covid-19-mortality-rate-may-be-lower-than-expected-/

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): May 1 (last revision on May 4)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,300,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 294,275
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 3,307 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 2.2% (very low)

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