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COVID analytical update for Thursday, May 7

Virginia mystery solved

I spent the better part of the day reconciling cases from the Virginia Department of Health website with the various reporting outlets. I believe I understand it now, and will discuss it below when we talk about Virginia. It will give you some insight into the data analysis challenges.

A record number of tests were reported today – nearly 350,000. The positive rate was less than 8%. I wish I knew the nature of the 92% of tests that returned negative – if we had this data, we’d be able to make a better calculation of the true growth rate. It’s clear that the growth rate as calculated is somewhat overstated by the increase in testing, but we don’t know how much.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): May 1 (last revision on May 4)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,242,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 345,742
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 3,171 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 2.3% (very low)

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