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COVID analytical update for Wednesday, May 6

National growth rate 1.9% — declines nearly everywhere

The headlines can’t stop with the bad news – please take everything with a grain of salt, as the national reporting is generally at a very superficial level. Could we have a surge of COVID in May? Perhaps, but it’s important to realize that there is no evidence of this in the data to date. I’m going to pin yesterday’s model discussion to the bottom of the daily report for those just joining the list now. As I said yesterday, I’m not knowledgeable about epidemiology – I’m just a mathematician — I have no agenda — I just follow the data where it leads us. If things deteriorate, we’ll know quickly from the data itself.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): May 1 (last revision on May 4)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,242,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 215,443
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 2,742 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.9% (very low)

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