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COVID analytical update for Monday, May 4

National growth rate falls to new low of 1.8%

Another day, another decline. As expected, the states are uneven day to day in their decline, but today we even see a decline in Virginia (it’s about time, but it’s just one day). Daily deaths continue their downward journey, with today’s deaths the lowest since March.

I’m still watching to see if we see any differences between states that reopen and those that do not, but I doubt we’ll see anything interesting, because early studies show no correlation between lockdown dates and disease progression, and now Forbes reports that “shelter in place” is over pretty much everywhere anyway, and people are starting to go about their business: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/05/01/apple-data-shows-shelter-in-place-is-ending-whether-governments-want-it-to-or-not/#41ed936f6fb5

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 29)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,200,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 231,812
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 2,791 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 1.8% (slowest growth seen to date)

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