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COVID analytical update for Sunday, May 3

Further declines…

Just about everything is in decline, so I’m not sure how long this report will be useful. Perhaps it just serves as a check on the news articles which still say the worst is ahead of us (it isn’t). The only places I’m modeling that are still growing are Texas and Virginia. If I get time this week I’ll dive into that to see if there are reporting issues, or they are actually still growing.

I’m still watching to see if we see any differences between states that reopen and those that do not, but I doubt we’ll see anything interesting, because early studies show no correlation between lockdown dates and disease progression, and now Forbes reports that “shelter in place” is over pretty much everywhere anyway, and people are starting to go about their business: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/05/01/apple-data-shows-shelter-in-place-is-ending-whether-governments-want-it-to-or-not/#41ed936f6fb5

In any event, I plan to continue these updates through the end of the week. If anything interesting is happening with the data, I’ll continue to produce them.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or logistic modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 29)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,180,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 237,019
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 2,812 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 2.3% (slowest growth seen to date)

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