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COVID analytical update for Friday, May 1

Declines in WA, FL, NY, MA, GA, MI, PA, TX – increases in NC, CA, SC, VA

The big news today is that we had a record 321,000 tests reported today, and only 10.8% positive. Testing is now widespread, and we’re testing a lot of people who are not sick with COVID. Things are looking better for most of the states I’m tracking once again. Over the next 2 weeks, we’ll start to see if there is any correlation between various states restrictions and outcomes. Initial studies show no correlation, which doesn’t surprise me, since people will generally be cautious or not regardless of whether the government tells them to. Here is one from T.J. Rodgers, a person I know and respect: https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911?mod=article_inline

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 29)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,125,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 320,628
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 1,639 (a record low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 3.3% (very low)

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