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COVID analytical update for Thursday, April 30

Declines in FL, NY, MA, GA, MI, PA, TX – increases in NC, CA, VA

Things are looking better for most of the states I’m tracking. I was asked how I chose the states I’m tracking. I chose NY, WA, and CA as they were the first hot spots. I added MA, MI, and PA as they grew to statistical significance. I added GA, SC, and TX because they looked like they would be the first states to relax restrictions, and everyone is watching them to see if the propagation accelerates (I don’t think it will). And I track NC because I live there. VA is on my list because I got more than a few requests to add it.

As always, feel free to send me your questions about my assumptions, methodology, or modeling in general.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 28)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,088,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 205,012
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 2,775 (a record low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 2.7% (very low)

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