COVID Archives

Evening COVID analytical update for Tuesday, April 28

More on mortality rates…

Here is my first analysis based uniformly on COVID Tracking Project data. I was already using Tracking Project data for most of the charts and graphs, but I’ve redone the analysis going all the way back using only the Tracking Project.

I’ve already received quite a few questions about the mortality rates I quoted this morning for New York state, which were:

Age COVID Mortality Rate
0-59 0.09%
60+ 2.50%

The common question is “what does it mean?”. These mortality rates represent the probability of death for those unlucky enough to be infected. The general population mortality rate (the probability of someone generally dying from COVID) is much, much lower. So these rates can be interpreted as “a person contracting COVID and age 59 and under has a 0.0009 chance of dying from the disease. Put another way, for every 1,111 people under age 60 contracting COVID, only 1 would be expected to die. For those over 60, the number is about 1 out of 40, a remarkable difference.

The second question I received in numbers was “is 0.09% low or high – relate it to something”. OK, so in the general population in the U.S., the average 50 year old has a 0.5% change of dying within a year (sorry for that news). This probability is roughly 5 ½ times higher than the probability of dying IF YOU CATCH COVID.

For the average 75 year old in the U.S., the probability of dying within one year is 3.6%. This is about 1 ½ times higher than the probability of dying IF YOU CATCH COVID.

How can this all make sense? Well, it seems Actuaries dwell on this the most, but each year about 3,000,000 people die of all causes in the U.S. When all is said and done, it looks like COVID deaths in the U.S. this season will make up about 2-3% of that number.

I’m going to pin this and this mornings mortality discussion to the bottom of the reports, since many new people join this list every day.

As always, feel free to send me your questions or comments.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 27)
  • Short term projection for tomorrow: 1,031,000
  • Total Test Results reported today: 202,233
  • Total Pending tests reported today: 4,206 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate today: 2.5% (very low)

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