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Daily COVID analytical update for Monday, April 27

Daily deaths decline, new cases decline – growth rate falls to new low (again)

My headline has been the same for 3 days – Groundhog Day but that’s good news. COVID continues its steady decline in the United States, with the national growth rate for reported cases falling to 2.55%, a new low. This does not appear to be a Sunday reporting effect, as the tests reported yesterday were over a quarter million. Last Sunday 175,000 tests were reported. Yesterday we had about 5,000 fewer new cases than a week ago, but 75,000 more test reports. I like this.

We’re now 12 days past peak daily deaths (IHME), and 17 days past peak reported active cases (Chalke modeling). Tomorrow I’m going to report my first cut on mortality rates (my specialty). I’ll not preview this, but let me say it strikes me that we should be lifting restrictions demographically rather than geographically.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, data sources, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line. If you’re bored with this daily report, let me know and I’ll remove you from the list.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 22)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 999,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 256,444
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 4,445 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 2.55% (a new low)

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