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Daily COVID analytical update for Sunday, April 26

Daily deaths decline, new cases decline – growth rate falls to new low

The national growth rate for reported cases fell to a new low of 2.7%. This is not a Saturday effect, since we had near record tests of over 300,000 reported yesterday. I’m still challenged by the increasing anomalies and outright errors in the way some jurisdictions are reporting data, but I’m using it as it is, rather than trying to back out historical data reported as current or other data irregularities. These issues will show up for a day or two, then smooth out over time. The overall trend is the same for over 2 weeks now – the disease is in decline nationally. There are some states where it continues to grow, but most of the states I’m individually tracking are past peak and declining.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line. If you’re bored with this daily report, let me know and I’ll remove you from the list.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 22)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 974,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 300,833
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 5,315 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 2.7% (a new low)

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