COVID Archives

Daily COVID analytical update for Saturday, April 25

Daily deaths decline, new cases decline – growth rate falls to new low

The national growth rate for reported cases fell to a new low of 3.26% New deaths also fell for the 3rd day in a row. There are increasing anomalies and outright errors in the way some jurisdictions are reporting data. The floodgates for this opened when the CDC changed their guidance on reporting April 17th, allowing both “probable” cases and deaths. In addition, some states have been retroactively finding probably cases. I’ll comment more on this in the state by state view below.

If you’ve been following my analysis for a while, you know that the story of this disease is a story of diverse metropolitan areas. The vast majority of the progression is in cities, where the population density is high. I haven’t looked at this, but I suspect there is a strong correlation between population density and propagation speed. The point is, that each city is in a somewhat different phase of the curve. It’s readily apparent when you look at the state by state curves below. For those of you interested in the effect of relaxing restrictions in some of the early states unlocking now, I believe the earliest date we could see an effect is about 2 weeks following the lifting of restrictions, based on gestation period and testing lags.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line. If you’re bored with this daily report, let me know and I’ll remove you from the list.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 22)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 950,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 223,552
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 4,396 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 3.26% (a new low)

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