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Daily COVID model update for Thursday, April 23

Testing expands dramatically, cases do not – TX added

The big news is that over 300,000 test results were reported yesterday. Since the big unknown is the ratio of total cases to reported cases, I would have expected a spike in new reported cases, but that did not happen. This is good news, but I don’t know the nature of who is being tested and why.

The national growth rate yesterday rose slightly to 3.6%, but estimated active cases still fell slightly.

The IHME model was republished again yesterday. They raised the projected total death count to 67,641, up from about 60,000. They are staying with April 15th as the day we crested peak deaths. As I mentioned yesterday, they are now publishing a date for each state where they are estimating it is safe to relax restrictions, but I think their criteria is unrealistic. They’ve set the date for when a state falls below 1 active case per 1,000,000 of population. That would be 10 active cases in the state of NC for example. I suspect most states will relax restrictions far before this, if it in fact this metric is even attainable. And that’s not considering that no one is even counting active cases that I’m aware of (I model them based on certain assumptions).

I added Texas to the reporting today. Unless another state obviously flares up, I’ll stop there. The daily report is getting long as it is…

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 22)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 887,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 311,381 (a new high)
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 4,191 (very low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 3.6% (very low)

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