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Daily COVID model update for Wednesday, April 22

National growth rate drops to 3.3% – GA, MI, PA added

The national growth rate dropped from 3.8% to 3.3% yesterday, which is again the lowest growth rate we’ve seen to date. However, I was expecting a larger fall. Let’s hope for that today. I’ve added a daily report on GA, MI, and PA. All three states are past peak active cases, and in decline. In addition, the number of reported pending tests is very small.

IHME published a revision to their COVID model late yesterday. They have added an estimate for each state as to when they believe lifting restrictions is prudent. Their criteria, however, are when infections drop below 1 per million of population, or 0.0001%. That would mean less than 11 cases in NC, for example. I don’t believe we will ever get to this threshold. In reality, states are beginning to move more quickly than this. More below.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 21)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 852,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 151,627
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 3,956 (a new low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 3.3% (a new low)

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