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Daily COVID model update for Tuesday, April 21

National growth rate drops to 3.8% – South Carolina added

The national growth rate dropped from 4.0% to 3.8% yesterday, which is the lowest growth rate we’ve seen to date. I’m expecting the growth rate to continue to fall the remainder of this month. It looks like the first 3 states to begin opening back up are SC, TN, and GA. I’ll add all three to the daily report as I have time, since I’m very curious to see what, if anything, changes when they reduce restrictions. I’ve added South Carolina today.

My Logistic model projected 800,564 cases yesterday, and the actual numbers came in at 800,964, or a deviation of 0.0%. That’s no big deal, as the course of this disease has been pretty easy to predict in the short run. The test will be how the model holds up over the next 4 or 5 days, as the model projects a declining new case count.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 17)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 823,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 137,687
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 4,037 (a new low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 3.8% (a new low)

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