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Daily COVID model update for Saturday, April 18

Massachusetts added – IHME Model update

The national growth rate rose again yesterday, from 5.0% to 5.2%. I spend hours every day looking for patterns in the data, so have become quite familiar with the ebb and flo of the data each day. Very little reporting happens before noon, and we get significant reporting around 1pm, again around 4:30, and once again around 8pm. Little happens after 9pm, so I start looking at the day’s reports around then. Last night things were looking very good, with a nice drop in new cases, and the national growth rate dropping to 4.4%. For some reason I went to bed early last night, around 11pm. When I wake up this morning about 5,000 new cases were added to yesterday’s data. I don’t know what to make of this, but as a mathematician, I like regular patterns. I’m going to watch this as it emerges tonight to see if this repeats, and try and determine where the late reporting is coming from.

The IHME Model released an update yesterday, and the news is good. They now project that peak deaths happened on April 15, and have lowered their total death projection to 60,000. They are now showing peak deaths in NY on April 16. The biggest shock is Florida, where they previously projected peak deaths on May 9. They are now projecting that peak deaths already occurred some days ago, on April 2. Since I calculate peak cases in Florida on April 8, I would have expected peak deaths to be more like April 15. We’ll see.

I have added Massachusetts to my analysis, as the individual states I’ve been tracking are all past or around their active case peak. Massachusetts, however, is still experiencing active case growth, so it is worthwhile to track.

Finally, I’m going to refit my Logistic Model this weekend, and will have a better overall projection of the decline.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line.

  • Likely date of active case peak (Chalke modeling): April 10
  • Likely date of peak deaths (IHME): April 15 (last revision on April 17)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 749,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 140,304
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 10,889 (a new low)
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 5.2%

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