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Daily COVID model update for Friday, April 17

Small uptick in growth rate today

An abbreviated report today as I’m tight on time. More tomorrow. The national growth rate rose slightly yesterday from 4.9% to 5.0%. I want to spend some time over the weekend to look at all the states growth rates to see where this is coming from, but it’s not NY data this time. NY reported a decrease in new cases yesterday, from 11,571 to 8,505. Of course, the previous day’s number (11,571) was a marked increase from the day before, and I still don’t know whether the reclassified 3,778 deaths were included in Wednesday’s reporting. I do not try and correct for changing definitions or protocol. I do consistently use the data from just 3 sources: www.infection2020.com for national daily numbers, the COVID Tracking Project for daily state data, and the IHME model for any comments about peak deaths. I’m anxiously awaiting an update to the IHME model, which was last updated on April 13.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line.

  • Likely days past active case peak (Chalke modeling): 7 days
  • Likely days past peak deaths (IHME): 4 days (last revision on April 13)
  • Short term projection for tonight: 710,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 158,309
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 16,927
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 5.0%

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