COVID Archives

Daily COVID model update for Thursday, April 16

NYC adds a wrinkle

The national growth rate rose yesterday to 4.9%. This increase is almost entirely due to NY data, and I’m still trying to make sense of the historical revision, and which numbers it has impacted and which is has not. You may have read that on Tuesday NYC reclassified 3,778 deaths going back to March 11 as COVID deaths. I have no issue with this, but I’m trying to accurately determine when and how these new cases are reported in the data. It appears that the state of NY has revised the death count numbers historically. As a result, there is no single day where you see the additional 3,778 deaths reported. On the other hand, it appears that the case count history was not revised, and I believe (but don’t know) that the reclassified deaths were reported as new cases yesterday. NY reported 11,571 new cases yesterday, in contrast to the previous 4 day average of 7,924, or a bump of about 3,647. If any of you have any first hand knowledge of NY’s reporting methodology for the revision, please drop me a line.

In any event, we’ll have a better idea later today if we see new case reporting in NY decline again. I’m not going to try and correct for the revision – I’ll just let it pass through the numbers. It’s likely a one-time perturbation of the data. Even if other localities follow suit (some will), the numbers are all low compared to NY, where the mass of the disease is centered.

According to my modeling, and even with the change in NY data, I believe we’re down to about 210,000 active case in the U.S. More below.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or want to know about Logistic modeling generally, drop me a line.

  • Likely days past active case peak (Chalke modeling): 6 days
  • Likely days past peak deaths (IHME): 3 days
  • Short term projection for tonight: 676,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 161,135
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 16,901
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 4.9%

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