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Daily COVID model update for Monday, April 13

National growth rate hits new low of 5.2%

As I said yesterday, I don’t totally trust Easter Weekend data, but nonetheless the news is good. We hit a new low national growth rate yesterday of 5.2%. The IHME model shows that we’re 3 days past peak deaths in the United States, and my model shows 3 days past peak active cases. One place where my model differs from the IHME is in Florida. I show Florida active cases peaking a few days ago, but IHME doesn’t project peak deaths in Florida until April 27. That’s two weeks away. I would have expected peak deaths earlier. In any event, IHME projects total COVID deaths in Florida at less than 4,000 through mid-summer. That is just a tiny fraction of total annual deaths in Florida from all causes. In NC, we’ve been at or just around the peak for days, but we haven’t seen the steady decline yet like we see in Florida or California. Of course, there is very little COVID in NC, so the sampling isn’t as large. In New York, where they have suffered the most, we are now well past peak active cases, and peak deaths.

I was expecting a flood of reporting today after the holiday weekend, but as I write this it’s 1:09pm and very little so far. I am expecting a small uptick today, but will be happy if we don’t see it.

Note that the IHME model shows national peak deaths 3 days ago, and my model shows national peak cases also 3 days ago. These two data points are somewhat incongruous, as Peak Cases precedes Peak Deaths – I would have though by a week or so. We know that we are in fact past peak deaths, because deaths are reported. We’re less certain about the day we reached peak active cases, because recoveries are not reported in any meaningful way. It’s likely that we reached peak active cases earlier than I’m showing.

As always, if you have any questions about my assumptions, or how I’m modeling, or even want to know the functional form of the model, drop me a line.

  • Likely days past active case peak (Chalke modeling): 3 days
  • Likely days past peak deaths (IHME): 3 days
  • Short term projection for tonight: 592,000
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 139,870
  • Total Pending tests reported yesterday: 16,419
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 5.2%

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