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Daily COVID model update for Saturday, April 11

Looks like we’re over the hill nationally, CA peaks

Please feel free to send me any questions you may have on the data or my analysis – I welcome all thoughts. Or just drop me a line and let me know if you find this daily report useful.

  • Current Prediction of Reported and Still Active Case Peak: April 10 or 11
  • Confidence: High
  • Short term projection for tonight: 542,000
  • Key Stats:
  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 168,213
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 7.6%

So all the headlines today are focusing on the fact that the U.S. now has over 500,000 cumulative reported cases. What they’re not saying is the progression of the disease has slowed to a crawl, and we’re at the point of maximum active cases. I know it’s hard to see just looking at a graph of cumulative cases. It’s probably obvious, but cumulative reported cases cannot ever decrease. Once as case is reported, it stays reported. However, this new headline does not mean 500,000 people have COVID. It means that 500,000 people have or have had COVID. When we talk about Peak Active Cases, we refer to the maximum number of people at any given time that have the disease. Just now it looks like something less than 250,000.

The national growth rate fell yesterday from 7.9% to 7.6%. It’s clear that active cases are peaking. It’s the picture below that’s important. We’ve been waiting for the blue line to level off. The peak was yesterday, or perhaps today, but they won’t differ by more than a couple thousand cases. The United States is peaking at something less than 250,000 active cases, which is good news, relative to everything you’ve read over the past couple of weeks. According to the IHME model, peak deaths in the U.S. occurred yesterday. Unless the nature of the disease changes, peak cases must occur before peak deaths, so perhaps the lag time between case reporting and death reporting is shorter than I’m assuming.

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