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Daily COVID model update for Friday, April 10

North Carolina and Florida Peak

  • Current Prediction of Reported and Still Active Case Peak: April 10 or 11
  • Confidence: High
  • Model projection for tonight: 504,000

Key Stats:

  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 180,746
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 7.9%
  • NY reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 7.1%
  • WA reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 4.8%
  • FL reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 5.9%
  • NC reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 6.6%

The data from the various sources were more congruous yesterday, so I’m feeling better about that. The national peak cases point is very close, and looks like it will happen tonight or tomorrow. The IHME model predicts national peak deaths on Sunday, so I’m surprised I’m calculating peak cases so close to peak deaths. I would have thought it would be much earlier, but I do not have good data on the average length of time from case reporting to death reporting. Just to reiterate, my assumptions are:

  • Mean time from symptoms onset to sample collection: 3 days
  • Mean time from sample collection to test reporting: 3 days
  • Mean time from symptoms onset to resolution (recovery or death): 13 days

If any of you can improve on this, let me know.

The big news (for some of us, anyway) is that it looks like Wednesday was the day NC experienced its peak active cases at 1,842, and Florida experienced its peak active cases at 8,500. NC has seen little COVID, so active cases may bumble around this number for a few days but this is good news. We’ll know how solid this for both states as we watch over the next couple of days. The IHME model projects peak deaths in NC next Wednesday, and FL in 13 days.

We hit a new low on national growth rate for cumulative reported cases yesterday at 7.9%, and the growth rate in active cases is close to zero (1.0%). It looks like my model is ahead of the actual data by about 3 days. I’ll continue to report model/actual results, and it’s premature to refit the model. However, I’ve changed the short-term case prediction above to reflect reality, as new cases have gone flat, and quite predictable for the moment.

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