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Daily COVID model update for Thursday, April 9

  • Current Prediction of Reported and Still Active Case Peak: April 8
  • Confidence: Medium, High Confidence between April 8 and April 11
  • Model projection for tonight: 456,000

Key Stats:

  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 125,304
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 8.3%
  • NY reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 7.5%
  • WA reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 3.6%
  • FL reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 4.8%
  • NC reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 6.4%

Well, we may or may not have seen peak active cases in the U.S. yesterday. For the first time, the various sources of data are not correlating well. www.infection2020.com, my usual data source, reports 435,609 as of end of day yesterday. Wall St. Journal this afternoon reports 432,000 cases, citing Johns Hopkins. The CDC reports 427,460 as of 4pm yesterday, and the Covid Tracking Project reports 423,637 as of 4pm yesterday. I’m not happy with this, but will continue to use my primary source and hope this resolves itself. As a result, a little less discussion today until I see more underlying data credibility.

The IHME model is still projecting peak deaths on April 12, just 3 days from now, and total deaths at about 60,000 by August. The national growth rate (using www.infection2020.com data) is 8.3% yesterday, well into single digits. I’m keeping my eye on California to when active cases peak, and will introduce a California graph below.

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