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Daily COVID model update for Wednesday, April 8

NY peaked Monday

  • Current Prediction of Reported and Still Active Case Peak: April 8
  • Confidence: Medium, High Confidence between April 8 and April 11
  • Short Term Projection for tonight: 431,000

Key Stats:

  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 137,367
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 9.2%
  • NY reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 6.3%
  • WA reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 5.0%
  • FL reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 10.7%
  • NC reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 12.2%

The good news today is that the state of New York Active cases seemed to peak on Monday (more below). It looks like California will peak very soon, but Florida still lags by a couple of weeks. I also noticed that the IHME model (from University of Washington) today revised total U.S. deaths from over 80,000 to 60,000. I’m still thinking the 60,000 number is too high based on what I’m seeing. Let’s hope so. That puts the total deaths in the range of a bad flu season (not good, but some perspective helps).

We’ve been down into single digit growth rates for several days now, so the disease is now spreading at a snail’s pace compared to 2 weeks ago. I’m looking for Peak Active Cases in the U.S. any day now. My model predicts anytime between yesterday and tomorrow (more below).

Check out the growth rates in NY and WA. Washington is over the active case peak, and it happened at something above a 5% growth rate. In both NY and WA we are on the downslope, and probably a few other states where I haven’t run the data.

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