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Daily COVID model update for Tuesday, April 7

Peak active cases today?

  • Current Prediction of Reported and Still Active Case Peak: April 7 or 8
  • Confidence: Medium
  • Short Term Projection for tonight: 403,000

Key Stats:

  • Total Test Results reported yesterday: 155,045
  • National reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 9.0%
  • NY reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 7.1%
  • WA reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 5.2%
  • FL reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 9.7%
  • NC reported case Growth Rate yesterday: 11.0%
  • Total currently hospitalized for COVID in U.S. N/A – data unreliable

I started doing my own modeling of COVID growth when I noticed that the news coverage didn’t bear much relationship with the reported cases. The numbers I was seeing pointed to a much smaller footprint than a lot of the sensationalized news. Now that we’re nearly over the peak (and yes we are – we are NOT in the infancy as some news reports still claim) I expect the news to gradually approach reality. In any event, I’m happy for the IHME model (funded by Bill Gates, btw). It’s in the public sphere, and anyone can look at it: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america You can easily look up your state to see when the model predicts peak deaths (some states have ALREADY peaked). In any event, I expect to send a daily report so long as I have something interesting to add, maybe until we’re clearly on the downslope.

As promised, I refit my Logistic model to historical cumulative reported case data today. I’ll continue to track against the updated model. The model currently projects that the cumulative total of all reported cases will steadily, and then slowly approach something less than 600,000 total in the April 23 timeframe. As I mentioned yesterday, there is no reasonable data I’ve been able to find on recoveries, but I’ve made the assumption that the mean time between symptom onset and resolution is 13 days, the mean time between symptom onset and sample collection 3 days, and the mean time from sample collection to test reporting 3 days. I’ll change any of these assumptions with more information, but using these, I believe we will reach peak active cases today or tomorrow.

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