Causes of Death - US, 2020, Year to Date

Causes of Death - US, 2020, Year to Date Based on our analysis of data from the Center for Disease Control, as of November 23, COVID-19 is the 3rd largest cause of death among Americans thus far in 2020. Read More Here

How Much Risk?

Balancing Costs and Benefits in a Post-COVID World



Wave 3 is cresting now…

An Actuarial Point of View

Shane Chalke, a distinguished actuary with decades of experience, shares his views on the facts about COVID transmission and mortality”.

My first daily death projection

Back in April I never thought I’d be writing about COVID in November, but here we are. Nationally, new cases are setting records, but many of the wave 3 “hot spot” states are leveling or in actual decline. There is a lot happening with the numbers right now, so I’m going to report a bit more often, probably twice a week over the next few months.

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Cases increase rapidly, deaths do not

Cases continue to increase at quite a pace, but not evenly distributed across the U.S. As I mentioned in my last report, the first wave in April was centered in the Northeast, while the second wave in July was all about the sunbelt. This third wave is centered in the Midwest, but more dispersed than wave 1 and 2.

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Does More Cases Mean More Deaths?

On Saturday over 83,000 new cases were reported in the U.S. That’s a new record, more than 6,000 cases higher than the previous peak on July 17.Where is this happening, and what does it mean? Let’s start by looking at geography. There were 13 states that each had more than 2,000 new cases. These 13 states made up 57% of all new cases.Texas and California are at the top, then Illinois and Wisconsin.

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Read More Daily COVID Analysis

Other News and Views

Around the NFL
All 77 false-positive COVID-19 tests come back negative upon reruns
Mississippi church fighting coronavirus restrictions burned to the ground

Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world, is populated very densely, and has a very high number of visitors going to and from China. Yet the number of deaths this year in Japan have actually been, overall, decreasing, showing no impact at all from COVID.

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Hertz files for U.S. bankruptcy protection as car rentals evaporate in pandemic

A large portion of Hertz’s revenue comes from car rentals at airports, which have all but evaporated as potential customers eschew plane travel.

Hospitals are not overwhelmed; most of us will be exposed anyway since we can’t sequester until there’s a vax; and we know which groups need protection from worst outcomes. Is the public health benefit from broad lockdowns at this point worth such extreme damage to livelihoods?

Lloyd Blankfein on Twitter
Chief Executive of Goldman Sachs

New coronavirus cases across the world jump by the most ever in a single day, WHO says

  Of course! More tests equal more cases!

LOCKDOWN KILLS THE POOR

If you think the worldwide lockdown is such a wise thing, you should read this article about suicides in Thailand, one of many developing countries where the poor are suffering terribly to keep richer old people alive.

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Commentary and Opinion from John F. Groom

John F. Groom is the founder of Groom Ventures and DailyOutrage.com

The Age of Stupid, Irrational Fear

Why is this beach in Bali almost empty? This recent picture was taken at Legian Beach, normally crowded during the peak of the tourist season.

Is it because COVID is such a danger in Indonesia? No, a relatively tiny number of people have died of COVID in Indonesia, far fewer than die in car accidents, from heart disease, cancer, or any number of causes.

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Travel – 27% Normal Volumes at Peak of Vacation Season

The most recent data available is for July 27th, when almost exactly 700,000 people passed through TSA checkpoints to get a flight. That’s a nice improvement from June 11, but still down 73% from the same day last year. So very, very far from normalcy, despite most restrictions having been lifted across the US.

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How to Really Save Lives

Worldwide COVID has killed less than 500,000 people in 2020, while preventable noncommunicable diseases kill around 38 million people every year.

While the entire world has shut down to fight COVID, according to this study almost 100 million deaths could be avoided worldwide over the next 25 years by doing 3 fairly simple things:

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Air Travel – A Great Gauge of US Recovery

There’s a simple, easy way to figure out to what degree America is returning to normal after the COVID lockdowns are lifted.

In March of this year, the TSA began publishing a list of passenger traffic at airports, with the corresponding day in 2019, one year before.

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