Causes of Death - US, 2020, Year to Date

Causes of Death - US, 2020, Year to Date Based on our analysis of data from the Center for Disease Control, as of August 10, COVID-19 is the 3rd largest cause of death among Americans thus far in 2020. Read More Here

How Much Risk?

Balancing Costs and Benefits in a Post-COVID World

Arizona stages a remarkable recovery…

An Actuarial Point of View

Shane Chalke, a distinguished actuary with decades of experience, shares his views on the facts about COVID transmission and mortality”.

National active cases drop by 84,000 in the past two weeks…

Last report I talked about why the population ceiling for known active cases is so low. I’ve pinned that discussion to the bottom of this report in case you want to look at it again. In any event, it’s been a puzzle as to why more people don’t get COVID. It seems from the data that known active cases in any geographical area hit a hard ceiling of 0.25% to 0.50% of the population, then begin a downward path.

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Why does COVID peak at such a low percentage of the population?

I’ve talked a lot over the past weeks about how COVID known active cases tend to peak in the range of 0.25% to 0.50% of the population in a given area, then decline. For the longest time it has puzzled me. However, I’ve been seeing more and more theories about full or partial immunity in a large swath of the population.

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Some thoughts on the daily death count

The acceleration of cases, which began around June 10th, leveled off last week, and now appears to be in decline. Here is what it looks like today:

Every one of the 6 hot spots from the beginning of July is level or in decline. We’ve now had about 20 days of flat new cases.

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Read More Daily COVID Analysis

Other News and Views

Mississippi church fighting coronavirus restrictions burned to the ground

Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world, is populated very densely, and has a very high number of visitors going to and from China. Yet the number of deaths this year in Japan have actually been, overall, decreasing, showing no impact at all from COVID.

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Hertz files for U.S. bankruptcy protection as car rentals evaporate in pandemic

A large portion of Hertz’s revenue comes from car rentals at airports, which have all but evaporated as potential customers eschew plane travel.

Hospitals are not overwhelmed; most of us will be exposed anyway since we can’t sequester until there’s a vax; and we know which groups need protection from worst outcomes. Is the public health benefit from broad lockdowns at this point worth such extreme damage to livelihoods?

Lloyd Blankfein on Twitter
Chief Executive of Goldman Sachs

New coronavirus cases across the world jump by the most ever in a single day, WHO says

  Of course! More tests equal more cases!


If you think the worldwide lockdown is such a wise thing, you should read this article about suicides in Thailand, one of many developing countries where the poor are suffering terribly to keep richer old people alive.

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Commentary and Opinion from John F. Groom

John F. Groom is the founder of Groom Ventures and

Travel – 27% Normal Volumes at Peak of Vacation Season

The most recent data available is for July 27th, when almost exactly 700,000 people passed through TSA checkpoints to get a flight. That’s a nice improvement from June 11, but still down 73% from the same day last year. So very, very far from normalcy, despite most restrictions having been lifted across the US.

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How to Really Save Lives

Worldwide COVID has killed less than 500,000 people in 2020, while preventable noncommunicable diseases kill around 38 million people every year.

While the entire world has shut down to fight COVID, according to this study almost 100 million deaths could be avoided worldwide over the next 25 years by doing 3 fairly simple things:

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Air Travel – A Great Gauge of US Recovery

There’s a simple, easy way to figure out to what degree America is returning to normal after the COVID lockdowns are lifted.

In March of this year, the TSA began publishing a list of passenger traffic at airports, with the corresponding day in 2019, one year before.

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The Real Heroes are in Wisconsin

Does the state of Wisconsin have the only judges who remember that the US has certain guaranteed freedoms, like freedom of movement and assembly?

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